Brazil's central bank surprised financial markets on Wednesday night with its first interest rate cut in seven months, strengthening investor confidence in an economic rebound this year and easing fears of economic contagion in the region from Argentina.

The bank's monetary policy committee reduced its overnight lending rate (Selic) by 25 basis points to 18.75 per cent. It said the reduction was "compatible with the convergence of the inflation rate to its target". The government's year-end inflation target is 5.5 per cent. The bank maintained a "neutral bias", meaning it is unlikely to change rates before its next monthly meeting in March.

A typical central bank strategy in past crises in the region has been to lift interest rates to attract investment in the fixed rate market. This is what countries did in 1999, when Brazil was forced to devalue the Real While Wednesday's rate cut is modest and leaves inflation-adjusted interest rates above 13 per cent, it could help accelerate a recovery in consumer confidence, which has
been battered by last year's power crisis and Argentina's economic turmoil.

Lower interest rates, one of the principal demands of Brazil's business sector, could also increase the popularity of the government ahead of presidential elections in October. According to the latest consensus forecast published by the central bank, the market expects interest rates to fall to 17 per cent by year - end and to 14.1 per cent by the end of 2003. According to the same forecast, gross domestic product is expected to grow 2.4 per cent this year, up from an estimated 1.7 per cent last year.

The phrase "last year's power crisis" refers to