Text III

In 2008, for the first time, half the world’s population is living in towns and cities. By 2030, the urban population will reach 5 billion — 60 per cent of the world’s population. Nearly all population growth will be in the cities of developing countries, whose population will double to roughly 4 billion by 2030 — about the size of the developing world’s total population in 1990.

World Urbanization Prospects: the 2005 Revision, prepared by the United Nations Population Division, presents estimates and projections of the number of people living in urban and rural areas for the period 1950- 2030. Some of its key findings are as follows:

\( → \) Most of the population increase expected during 2005-2030 will be absorbed by the urban areas of the less developed regions whose population will likely rise from 1.9 billion in 2000 to nearly 4 billion in 2030. The urban population of the more developed regions is expected to increase very slowly, passing from 0.9 billion in 2005 to 1 billion in 2030.

\( → \) During 2005-2030, the world’s urban population will grow at an average annual rate of 1.8 per cent, nearly double the rate expected for the total population of the world (1 per cent per year). At that rate of growth, the world’s urban population will double in 38 years.

\( → \) Growth will be particularly rapid in the urban areas of less developed regions, averaging 2.2 per cent per year during 2005-2030, consistent with a doubling time of 30 years. In contrast, the rural population of the less developed regions is expected to grow very slowly, at just 0.1 per cent per year during 2000-2030.

\( → \) The rapid increase of the world’s urban population coupled with the slowing growth of the rural population has led to a major redistribution of the population. Thus, whereas in 1950, 30 per cent of the world population lived in urban areas, by 2000 the proportion of urban dwellers had risen to 47 per cent and is expected to reach 60 per cent by 2030. The number of urban dwellers will for the first time have overtaken the number of rural dwellers in the world in 2008.

\( → \) There are marked differences in the level and pace of urbanization among less developed regions. Latin America and the Caribbean is highly urbanized, with 77 per cent of its population living in cities in 2000. Asia and Africa are considerably less urbanized, both with around 39 per cent of their populations living in urban areas. Being less urbanized, Africa and Asia are liable to experience rapid rates of urbanization during 2000- 2030. Consequently, by 2030, 54 per cent and 55 per cent, respectively, of their inhabitants will live in urban areas. At that time, 85 per cent of the population of Latin America and the Caribbean will be urban.

Fonte: http://www.peopleandplanet.net