Metrics of uncertainty and risk

The Guidance Note (GN) indicates that author teams should evaluate the associated evidence and agreement with respect to specific findings that involve risk and uncertainty of climate changes. The amount of evidence available can range from small to large, and can vary in quality and consistency. The GN recommends reporting the degree of certainty and/or uncertainty of a given topic as a measure of the consensus or agreement across the scientific community. Confidence expresses the extent to which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) authors do in fact support a key finding. If confidence is sufficiently high, the GN suggests specifying the key finding in terms of probability. The evaluation of evidence and degree of agreement of any key finding is labelled a traceable account in the GN.

The GN also recommends taking a risk-management perspective by stating that “sound decision making that anticipates, prepares for, and responds to climate change depends on information about the full range of possible consequences and associated probabilities.” The GN also notes that, “low-probability outcomes can have significant impacts, particularly when characterized by large magnitude, long persistence, broad prevalence, and/or irreversibility.” For this reason, the GN encourages the presentation of information on the extremes of the probability distributions of key variables, reporting quantitative estimates when possible and supplying qualitative assessments and evaluations when appropriate.

Capítulo 2: Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change

Response Policies, In: Climate Change 2014, p. 157 (adaptado)

No texto acima, Guidance Note (GN) faz algumas recomendações para pessoas que avaliam o grau de incerteza e risco de mudanças climáticas.

Assinale a alternativa que apresenta um procedimento recomendado pela GN: