The land-bankers’ argument that value was an extrinsic quality – subject to changing “opinion and fashion” – was particularly relevant to the stock market, since from the launch of diving companies onwards the market had fallen for a succession of fads. The rise of the stock market in the early 1690s was accompanied by a fashion for increasingly extravagant ladies’ headdresses, which climbed in height from the early 1690s until they peaked at over seven feet in 1695 (the year the stock market crashed). This prompted Sir Richard Steel to remark that “Stocks have risen and fallen in proportion to headdresses” – an observation which anticipates the connection between women’s rising hemlines and the stock market in the 1920s (what has become the “hemline theory of stock prices”). In 1919 the average level of the hem above the ground was 10 percent of a woman’s height. In 1920, during the postwar recovery, the hemline rose to around 20 percent. In the recession of 1921, it fell back to around 10 percent. As the bull market took off in 1924, hemlines rose until they reached 25 percent, in 1927, at which point they met the knee. They remained there until late 1929. After the Great Crash, hemlines fell until with the onset of the Great Depression they brushed the ground.

According to the text, the “hemline theory of stock prices”

Item 4 is groundless in face of contemporary events.

Dois economistas usam os modelos abaixo para analisar a relação entre demanda de moeda (m) e renda nacional (y). As variáveis estão todas em logaritmos e a periodicidade é mensal.

!$ { \large Economista\,A \over m_t = 1.099 y_t + \hat{u}_t\\ \,\,\,\,\,{ \small{ (0.0086)}}}\,(Equação)\,\,\, { \large Economista\,B \over \triangle\,m_t = 1.14 \triangle\,y_t + \hat{e}_t\\ \,\,\,\,\,{ \small{ (0.145)}}}\,(Equação 2) !$

Os valores entre parênteses são os erros-padrão.

Testes Dickey-Fuller Aumentado (ADF), com número apropriado de defasagens maior que zero em todos os casos, para as variáveis e para os resíduos dos dois modelos geram os seguintes resultados:

Variável	mt	yt	ût	Δmt	Δyt	êt
Estatística-ADF	-2.191	-1,952	-2.993	-5.578	-6.312	-8.456

O valor crítico da tabela Dickey-Fuller a 5% é igual a –2,886. É correta a afirmativa:

Item 2 Se a série de demanda de moeda for estacionária na diferença (difference stationarity) ela não pode ser estacionária na tendência (trend stationary).

TEXT 1

Rescuing environmentalism
(From The Economist print edition, Apr 21st 2005)

Market forces could prove the environment's best friend—if only greens could learn to love them

"The environmental movement's foundational concepts, its method for framing legislative proposals, and its very institutions are outmoded. Today environmentalism is just another special interest." Those damning words come not from any industry lobby or right-wing think-tank. They are drawn from "The Death of Environmentalism", an influential essay published recently by two greens with impeccable credentials. They claim that environmental groups are politically adrift and dreadfully out of touch. They are right. In America, greens have suffered a string of defeats on high-profile issues. They are losing the battle to prevent oil drilling in Alaska's wild lands, and have failed to spark the public's imagination over global warming. Even the stridently ungreen George Bush has failed to galvanize the environmental movement. The solution, argue many elders of the sect, is to step back from day-to-day politics and policies and "energize" ordinary punters with talk of global-warming calamities and a radical "vision of the future commensurate with the magnitude of the crisis".

The article’s introduction leads the reader to expect: