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Elections in the Philippines

A family affair

MANILA

After a Supreme Court ruling, the presidential field takes shape, dominated by familiar names

Mar 12 2016 | From the print edition of The Economist

FOR decades political instability, a boom-and-bust economy and endemic corruption earned the Philippines the moniker of the "sick man of Asia". But during the six years that Benigno Aquino has been president the country's prospects have markedly improved. The economy has zipped along at an average growth rate of 6 a year, while foreign investment has more than tripled, with manufacturing, agribusiness and call centres all showing particular strength. Mr Aquino, whose family, huge landowners, is not short of a bob, has made a stand against corruption, and his approval ratings are high. But presidents may serve only one term, and an election for his successor takes place on May 9th, The question is whether Mr Aquino's successor can keep the Philippines on the upswing. Five presidential candidates want to have a go.

In America, a vice-president might present himself as the candidate for continuity. But in the Philippines voters elect the vice-president separately, and Mr Aquino has long been at odds with his number two Jejomar Binay, now a leading prospect to replace him. Until 2010 Mr Binay was mayor of Makati, the wealthy business and financial district of Manila. It is home to the country's stock exchange and the biggest banks and corporations; it also has the capital's least-awful traffic. Over the past year Mr Binay has faced a stream of corruption allegations from his time running Makati, including not declaring properties, city contracts awarded to family members, the existence of bogus charities and hundreds of ghost employees on the government payroll. But the allegations seem hardly to dent his standing. Ordinary Filipinos care more about their own poverty and about lower-level graft: sticky-fingered bureaucrats and policemen. In Mr Binay they see less a corrupt politician than one who gets things done: he makes much of having got Makati residents free health care and better schools. In a televised election debate last month Mr Binay slammed the government for under-spending on development and poverty alleviation (you could for a moment pretend that he was not part of the government he was railing against).

One of the candidates jostling with Mr Binay for pole position is Grace Poe, a 47-year-old senator with a thin record but a compelling back story. She is said to have been abandoned at a cathedral as a baby, and was adopted by a popular film star, Fernando Poe, himself a presidential candidate in 2004. With bags of charm, in 2013 she won the highest ever number of votes for a Senate candidate. She shone when handling a congressional hearing into a botched raid against terrorists last year in which 44 policemen died.

For some months Ms Poe's candidacy had been in doubt. In December the election commission disqualified her, claiming that, as a foundling, she could not prove that she was a natural-born Filipina and that, as a former American resident, she had not lived in the Philippines for ten years - both constitutional requirements. Ms Poe appealed, and on March 8th the Supreme Court ruled in her favour.

Though an independent, Ms Poe has backed Mr Aquino in the Senate. Now the president may be backing her behind the scenes, even though he has formally endorsed Manuel "Mar" Roxas, an old family ally. A former banker and interior minister, and the grandson of an earlier president, Mr Roxas has promised to carry on along Mr Aquino's "straight path" fighting corruption. But he struggles to connect with ordinary Filipinos. Ms Poe, all sparkle, stands a better chance of winning.

The other candidate with a chance is Rodrigo Duterte, or "Dirty Harry", the crime-busting mayor of Davao, the largest city on the southern island of Mindanao. Though Muslims in western Mindanao have long waged a separatist battle, Davao is among the country's safest cities, though the methods are dubious: vigilante execution squads that the mayor has endorsed. Mr Duterte speaks his mind. When a visit to Davao by Pope Francis last year caused traffic mayhem, Mr Duterte spluttered: "Pope, you son of a bitch, go home." Asked about his womanising, he admitted to having two girlfriends, but complained that "without Viagra, I have a difficult time". He appeals to people who want a strong leader. Others worry about how his rough edges will go down abroad.

In the end, the race may come down to Ms Poe's star power versus Mr Binay's support from his party and business, and his strong links with local governments. No candidate promises to upend Mr Aquino's programme, but then policy has never figured strongly in Philippine politics. For all of the country's robust economy and its growing middle class, politics is driven by personalities and dominated by a few powerful families. Whoever wins in May, that will not change .•