A respeito dos Planos Cruzado e Collor, é correta a afirmativa:

Item 0 - Os dois planos tiveram por fundamento a hipótese de inercialidade da inflação.

Seja o modelo de regressão linear clássico com duas variáveis explicativas X₂ e X₃: Yi= !$ \beta !$₁ + !$ \beta !$₂X_2i + !$ \beta !$₃X_3i + u_i. É correto afirmar que:

Mesmo que a correlação entre X₂ e X₃ seja igual à unidade, pode-se estimar β₂ + cβ₃ , em que c é uma constante conhecida.

Considere uma economia de trocas na qual dois agentes A e B possuem 5 unidades de cada um de dois bens x e y. Assim, existem 10 unidades de cada um dos bens x e y na economia. A função de utilidade do agente A é U(x, y) = x + 2y e a do agente B é V(x, y) = min{2x, y}.

Item 1 - A alocação segundo a qual A recebe 8 unidades de x e 6 unidades de y e B recebe 2 unidades de x e 4 unidades de y é eficiente de Pareto.

Sobre os últimos anos do Império e os primeiros da República Velha, é correta a afirmativa:

Item 4 - A crise cambial e os sucessivos déficits orçamentários verificados a partir de 1891 foram combatidos por uma política monetária restritiva, sem ingerência de casas bancárias internacionais.

SECOND TEXT

Kosovo has given the European Union a chance to forge elements of a new common foreign policy in the cauldron of war. Last week. More quietly and with far less sense of urgency, came a chance to do so in peace. At a landmark summit in Rio de Janeiro, 46 leaders from Europe and Latin America agreed on a broad range of political, cultural and trade initiatives to build a “strategic partnership” between the regions – and challenge the United States’ longstanding hegemony in South and Central America.

“The end of the North American century “trumpeted the daily Folha de São Paulo after the meeting. But even if words are followed by deeds, that proclamation seems premature. At present, E. U. trade with Latin America and the Caribbean is less than that with Switzerland. The U. S., on the other hand, claims that by 2010 it will export more to the region than to Japan and the E. U. combined.

Export markets are what Latin America needs most, but market access hasn’t been the E. U’s strong suit. The Old World has focused on development aid (Europe contributes mores than half of the region’s total aid receipts) and cultural links. Change will be grudging. Before the summit European governments squabbled over giving the European Commission a mandate for trade liberalization talks with the Mercosur bloc – Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and associate member Chile. France in particular, as the prime beneficiary of the E. U’s lavish and protectionist agricultural policy, was loath to make any concessions ahead of the upcoming World Trade Organization negotiating round. The Commission did get its mandate, but the timetable for talks won’t be set until November and formal negotiations are unlikely to start before mid 2001.

“We had hoped the conference would have gone further,” said Prime Minister Antonio Guterres of Portugal, which along with Spain has been the principal advocate of greater trade with the region. Andrew Crawley, deputy-director of the Institute for European-Latin American Relations in Madrid, claims the Rio summit sill set the stage for a new trade era. “We essentially got Europe’s fast track,” he says, referring to the negotiating mandate denied to President Clinton by the U. S. Congress, thus complicating Washington’s efforts to secure a Free Trade Area of the Americas.

Even so, the E.U.’s protectionist farm tariffs are as much an obstacle to free trade as a fickle U. S. Congress. Latin America has greatly liberalized its trade regimes over the last decade, but Europe still discriminates against South American farm products, which make up 40% of Mercosur’s exports. Partly as a result, sales to Europe accounted for only 13.5% of Latin America’s exports in 1997, compared to 24% in 1990.

Brazilian President Fernando Cardoso has argued that if Europe can’t reform its agricultural regime, South America will gravitate more to the U. S. If that sparks a genuine competition between the U. S. and Europe to open their markets further to Latin American products, so much the better for South and Central America (Graff, J.L. “Europe Discovers America.” Time, July 12, 1999, p.25).

According to the text:

Item 0 - E.U.’s agricultural policy poses an obstacle to trade with Latin America as serious as that created by the reluctance of the U.S. Congress to accept change in trade policies.

Os anos 1903-1913 constituíram um período de franca prosperidade da economia brasileira. Sobre tal período, é correto afirmar que

Item 2 - a evolução do câmbio nos anos que antecederam à criação da Caixa de Conversão prejudicou os interesses dos cafeicultores.

BASED ON YOUR INTERPRETATION OF THE TEXTS THAT FOLLOW, DETERMINE IF EACH STATEMENT IS TRUE OR FALSE.

FIRST TEXT

An Indian newsweekly featured Amartya Sen on the cover of a late October 1998 issue with the headline “The Prophet we ignore.” The scholar of poverty has spent decades devising novel approaches to solving India’s woes – and the government of his native country has often chosen to forgo his advice, the magazine contends.

Nevertheless, Sen’s work has not gone unnoticed. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences chose to award Sen a Nobel for his contributions to welfare economics, the study of the way societies make fair choices about allocating resources. His work deals with fundamental questions such as how income inequality should be measured and what the conditions that lead to famines are. The academy noted that Sen’s melding of tools from philosophy with economics “restored an ethical dimension to the discussion of vital economic problems.”

In May 1993 Sen wrote an article in Scientific American called “The Economics of Life and Death.” In the following excerpt Sen discusses the genesis of a famine:

Economic explanations of famine are often sought in measures of food production and availability. And public policy is frequently based on a country’s aggregate statistics of the amount of food available per person, an indicator made prominent by Thomas Robert Malthus in the early 1800s. Yet contrary to popular belief, famine can result even when that overall indicator is high. Reliance on such simple figures often creates a false sense of security and thus prevents governments from taking measures to avert famine.

A more adequate understanding of famine requires examining the channels through which food is acquired and distributed as well as studying the entitlement of different sections of society. Starvation occurs because a substantial proportion of the population loses the means of obtaining food. Such a loss can result from unemployment, from a fall in the purchasing power of wages or from a shift in the exchange rate between goods and services sold and food bought. Information about these factors and the other economic processes that influence a particular group’s ability to procure food should form the basis of policies designed to avoid famine and relieve hunger.

The Bangladesh famine of 1974 demonstrates the need for a broader appreciation of the factors leading to such a calamity. That year, the amount of food available per capita was high in Bangladesh: indeed, it was higher than in any other year between 1971 and 1976. But floods that occurred from late June until August interfered with rice transplantation ... and other agricultural activities in the northern district. Those disruptions, in turn, caused unemployment among rural laborers, who typically lead a hand-to-mouth existence. Bereft of wages, these workers could no longer buy much food and became victims of starvation...

[The situation was exacerbated by precautionary hoarding and speculative stockpiling, which caused prices to rise and hurt the food-buying ability of poor Bangladeshis.] When food prices peaked in October, so also did the death toll...

The occurrence of this famine illustrates how disastrous it can be to rely solely on food supply figures. Food is never shared equally by all people on the basis of total availability. In addition, private and commercial stocks of produce are offered to or withdrawn from the market in response to monetary incentives and expectation of price changes.

There are several ways to prevent famine. In Africa and Asia, growing more food would obviously help, not only because it would reduce the cost of food but also because it would add to the economic means of populations largely employed in producing food. Augmenting food production, however, is not the only answer. Indeed, given the variability of the weather, concentrating too much of a nation’s resources on growing more food can increase the population’s vulnerability to droughts and floods. In sub-Saharan Africa, in particular, there is a strong need for diversification of production, including the gradual expansion of manufacturing.

No matter how successful the expansion of production and diversification may be in many African and Asian countries, millions of people will continue to be devastated by floods, droughts and other disasters. Famine can be averted in these situations by increasing the purchasing power of the most affected groups – those with the least ability to obtain food. Public employment programs can rapidly provide an income. The newly hired laborers can then compete with others for a share of the total food supply. The creation of jobs at a wage does, of course, raise prices: rather than letting the destitute starve, such a practice escalates the total demand for food. That increase can actually be beneficial, because it brings about a reduction in consumption by other, less affected groups. This process distributes the shortage more equitably, and the sharing can deter famine. (Gibbs, W. W., Nemeck, S. and Stix, G. The 1998 Nobel Prizes in Sciences. Scientific American. January 1999, p 11).

According to the text:

Item 2 - Malthus was a prominent economist in the early 1800s.

BASED ON YOUR INTERPRETATION OF THE TEXTS THAT FOLLOW, DETERMINE IF EACH STATEMENT IS TRUE OR FALSE.

FIRST TEXT

An Indian newsweekly featured Amartya Sen on the cover of a late October 1998 issue with the headline “The Prophet we ignore.” The scholar of poverty has spent decades devising novel approaches to solving India’s woes – and the government of his native country has often chosen to forgo his advice, the magazine contends.

Nevertheless, Sen’s work has not gone unnoticed. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences chose to award Sen a Nobel for his contributions to welfare economics, the study of the way societies make fair choices about allocating resources. His work deals with fundamental questions such as how income inequality should be measured and what the conditions that lead to famines are. The academy noted that Sen’s melding of tools from philosophy with economics “restored an ethical dimension to the discussion of vital economic problems.”

In May 1993 Sen wrote an article in Scientific American called “The Economics of Life and Death.” In the following excerpt Sen discusses the genesis of a famine:

Economic explanations of famine are often sought in measures of food production and availability. And public policy is frequently based on a country’s aggregate statistics of the amount of food available per person, an indicator made prominent by Thomas Robert Malthus in the early 1800s. Yet contrary to popular belief, famine can result even when that overall indicator is high. Reliance on such simple figures often creates a false sense of security and thus prevents governments from taking measures to avert famine.

A more adequate understanding of famine requires examining the channels through which food is acquired and distributed as well as studying the entitlement of different sections of society. Starvation occurs because a substantial proportion of the population loses the means of obtaining food. Such a loss can result from unemployment, from a fall in the purchasing power of wages or from a shift in the exchange rate between goods and services sold and food bought. Information about these factors and the other economic processes that influence a particular group’s ability to procure food should form the basis of policies designed to avoid famine and relieve hunger.

The Bangladesh famine of 1974 demonstrates the need for a broader appreciation of the factors leading to such a calamity. That year, the amount of food available per capita was high in Bangladesh: indeed, it was higher than in any other year between 1971 and 1976. But floods that occurred from late June until August interfered with rice transplantation ... and other agricultural activities in the northern district. Those disruptions, in turn, caused unemployment among rural laborers, who typically lead a hand-to-mouth existence. Bereft of wages, these workers could no longer buy much food and became victims of starvation...

[The situation was exacerbated by precautionary hoarding and speculative stockpiling, which caused prices to rise and hurt the food-buying ability of poor Bangladeshis.] When food prices peaked in October, so also did the death toll...

The occurrence of this famine illustrates how disastrous it can be to rely solely on food supply figures. Food is never shared equally by all people on the basis of total availability. In addition, private and commercial stocks of produce are offered to or withdrawn from the market in response to monetary incentives and expectation of price changes.

There are several ways to prevent famine. In Africa and Asia, growing more food would obviously help, not only because it would reduce the cost of food but also because it would add to the economic means of populations largely employed in producing food. Augmenting food production, however, is not the only answer. Indeed, given the variability of the weather, concentrating too much of a nation’s resources on growing more food can increase the population’s vulnerability to droughts and floods. In sub-Saharan Africa, in particular, there is a strong need for diversification of production, including the gradual expansion of manufacturing.

No matter how successful the expansion of production and diversification may be in many African and Asian countries, millions of people will continue to be devastated by floods, droughts and other disasters. Famine can be averted in these situations by increasing the purchasing power of the most affected groups – those with the least ability to obtain food. Public employment programs can rapidly provide an income. The newly hired laborers can then compete with others for a share of the total food supply. The creation of jobs at a wage does, of course, raise prices: rather than letting the destitute starve, such a practice escalates the total demand for food. That increase can actually be beneficial, because it brings about a reduction in consumption by other, less affected groups. This process distributes the shortage more equitably, and the sharing can deter famine. (Gibbs, W. W., Nemeck, S. and Stix, G. The 1998 Nobel Prizes in Sciences. Scientific American. January 1999, p 11).

According to the text:

Item 0 - Amartya Sen was a prophet of doom.

Os anos 1903-1913 constituíram um período de franca prosperidade da economia brasileira. Sobre tal período, é correto afirmar que

Item 0 - a prosperidade deveu-se principalmente ao aumento expressivo e continuado dos preços do café.

Considere o seguinte modelo de regressão linear clássico, relacionando as variáveis quantidade demandada (Q) e preço do produto (P). Admita que as duas variáveis sejam medidas em Reais, e que a estimação será efetuada por MQO (ln é logaritmo natural)

!$ ln=Qi=\beta_1+\beta_2 lnPi+u_i\,\,\,\,\,\,\, i=1,2,..., 100 !$

É correto afirmar que:

Item 3 - Se a variável ln Y (Y = renda) for acrescentada ao modelo o coeficiente R² desta nova regressão será maior ou igual ao coeficiente R² da regressão original.