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Text 2
Pandemic disease
Never again
As the Ebola epidemic draws gradually to its close, how should the world arm itself against the risks of insurgent infections?
Mar 21st 2015 | From the print edition
THE outbreak of Ebola fever brought to the world’s attention on March 22nd 2014 by Médecins Sans Frontières, an international charity, has infected some 25,000 people and killed more than 10,000 of them—almost all in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. It is abating. Liberia is close to declaring itself free of the virus and infection rates are falling in Sierra Leone. But it is not over yet, for in Guinea Ebola still kills dozens of people a week.
Moreover, the aftermath will harm the three countries’ economies, costing at least $1.6 billion in forgone economic growth this year, according to the World Bank.
Though it could have been a lot worse (at the height of the crisis some epidemiologists were talking of hundreds of thousands of deaths) it might also have been a lot better.
Previous Ebola outbreaks killed dozens or hundreds. The whole episode therefore suggests that the world’s defences against epidemics, though they have been strengthened since the rapid spread of SARS in 2002 and 2003 demonstrated their weaknesses, could do with reinforcing still further.
The prime directive of epidemic prevention is early detection. That means good surveillance. Unfortunately, only 64 of the 194 members of the World Health Organisation (WHO) have surveillance procedures, laboratories and data-management capabilities good enough to fulfil their obligations under an agreement known as the International Health Regulations. This, though, is changing. In Africa, Ethiopia, Rwanda and Uganda have sharpened up. So has Vietnam. America is now helping 30 other countries, including the three affected by Ebola, to follow suit while, at the same time, improving their networks of clinics. Groups of neighbours are also coming together to form regional surveillance networks that can follow outbreaks across borders. Researchers in Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam, for example, have formed what they call the Asian Partnership on Emerging Infectious Diseases Research.
Along with early detection, the world needs to get better at responding—both institutionally and technologically. The WHO, notoriously slow off the mark when it came to Ebola, is widely regarded as too ponderous and bureaucratic to react with the speed needed to nip an emerging epidemic in the bud. There is talk of setting up a specialist international epidemic-prevention organisation. Bill Gates, a philanthropist whose foundation does a lot of work on disease control in poor countries, encourages this idea in this week’s New England Journal of Medicine. He notes that epidemics and war are similarly costly of blood and treasure, but that only war is taken seriously by politicians—at least in terms of preparations such as standing armies. As if to prove the point, the threat of bioterrorism has been one motive for what preparations have been put in place.
An army, of course, needs weapons. And, in the case of epidemics, it is important to think about what those might be. The temptation is to put money into high-profile areas like vaccines and drugs. It may, though, be more useful to concentrate on diagnosis, because this can stop people spreading a disease. The science of diagnostic testing is advancing rapidly, making it easier to come up quickly with a test for a new pathogen. That, Mr Gates believes, presents an opportunity. But it is one, he says, which requires the establishment of a rapid approval and procurement process, so that diagnostic tests can be made available quickly during outbreaks. They also need to be portable, like pregnancy tests, to keep people out of clinics where they might otherwise spread infection.
Drugs and vaccines are still important, of course. Research is going on into ways to make new vaccines quickly, so trials can start within days of an outbreak. Modern biological techniques mean a pathogen’s genome can be copied and stuck into other cells to turn out proteins which might be used as a vaccine’s active ingredients. Once a vaccine has been identified, the same techniques could be used to make it quickly, and possibly locally if a portable factory were shipped to an affected area.
The sinews of war
But none of this rapid response can happen without cash. One lesson of an earlier incident, the H1N1 influenza (“swine flu”) pandemic of 2009, was the lack of a contingency fund to deal with such things. This is a problem Jim Yong Kim, president of the World Bank, is determined to solve. He has been meeting with politicians and the private sector to advance the case for a “global pandemic emergency financing facility”.
One more modest possibility is that pools of research funding could be set up in advance, along with agreed research protocols, allowing health studies to start more quickly. An existing example of this is a fund created by the Wellcome Trust, a British medical charity.
Even on the coldest of calculations, a contingency fund would be a wise precaution. The damage caused by Ebola to west Africa’s economy is trivial compared with the cost of, say, a global influenza pandemic. The World Bank reckons that might reduce global economic activity by almost 5%. How many would die would depend on the virus’s virulence. But even a 1% death rate, for something that was truly worldwide, would add up to millions. That is too much blood, and too much treasure, for politicians to ignore.
From the print edition: Science and technology
We understand from the text that:
Item 3 - Most countries have laboratories that meet the International Health Regulations requirements;
Provas
Questão presente nas seguintes provas
Julgue a alternativa:
Item 1 - Seja Z uma variável aleatória com distribuição qui-quadrado com n graus de liberdade. Então, a variável Z tem média igual a 0 e variância igual a seus graus de liberdade, n;
Provas
Questão presente nas seguintes provas
Julgue a alternativa abaixo:
Item 0 - Considere !$ y_t = \alpha \, + \, \beta t \, + \, \varepsilon_t !$. Então !$ \Delta y_t !$ será estacionário;
Provas
Questão presente nas seguintes provas
Em um mercado, cuja demanda inversa é dada por !$ P(Q) \, = \, 12 \, - \, 2Q !$, opera um Duopólio de Cournot. Tanto o custo fixo quanto o custo marginal das duas firmas são nulos. Os presidentes dessas firmas se encontram em uma churrascaria para discutir a possibilidade de formação de um cartel, com produção e lucro divididos igualmente. Eles sabem que no mesmo período que o cartel começar a operar cada firma deverá incorrer com um custo c, proveniente das despesas iniciais necessárias para a formação desse cartel. Responda:
Item 0 - O lucro total do cartel será igual a $18;
Provas
Questão presente nas seguintes provas
O consumidor B, proprietário da dotação !$ w \, = \, (x, \, y) \, = \, (10, \, 10) !$, apresenta função utilidade dada por !$ U_b(x, \, y) \, = \, x.y. !$ O preço do bem x é representado por P e o preço do bem y é fixo em $1. Se B pode negociar livremente sua dotação aos preços de mercado, responda:
Item 2 - Se puder negociar com o consumidor A, detentor de w = (20,10) e cuja função utilidade é !$ U_a \, (x, \, y) \, = \, { \large 1 \over 4} \, x \, + \, y !$, sua oferta líquida de y será 5 unidades se P = $1;
Provas
Questão presente nas seguintes provas
Avalie a proposições seguinte, que dizem respeito à teoria da competição perfeita:
Item 2 - Se a função custo de curto prazo de cada uma das dez firmas existentes for dada por !$ CT(q) \, = \, { \large 1 \over 2} \, q^2 \, + \, 10 !$ e a função demanda inversa de mercado for !$ P(Q) \, = \, 40 \, - { \large 3 \over 10} \, Q !$, então cada firma produzirá dez unidades;
Provas
Questão presente nas seguintes provas
A curva de demanda de mercado de um produto no instante !$ t !$ é !$ D_1 \, = \, 10- { \large 1 \over 2} p_t !$ e, por causa de lucros auferidos no período anterior e a expectativa de preços futuros, a curva de oferta desse produto no instante !$ t !$ é !$ S_t \, = \, 18 \, + \, { \large 1 \over 2} \ p_t \, - \, 6P^e_{t \, + \, 1} \, + \, p_{t - 1} !$, em que !$ P^e_{ t \, + \, 1} !$ é a expectativa de preços futuros. Diremos que as expectativas são racionais se !$ p^e_{t \, + \, 1} \, = \, P_{t \, + \, 1} !$.
Classifique a seguinte afirmações como verdadeira ou falsa:
Item 0 - Sob expectativas racionais, um preço estacionário é !$ \bar{p} \, = \, 2; !$
Provas
Questão presente nas seguintes provas
Text 2
Pandemic disease
Never again
As the Ebola epidemic draws gradually to its close, how should the world arm itself against the risks of insurgent infections?
Mar 21st 2015 | From the print edition
THE outbreak of Ebola fever brought to the world’s attention on March 22nd 2014 by Médecins Sans Frontières, an international charity, has infected some 25,000 people and killed more than 10,000 of them—almost all in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. It is abating. Liberia is close to declaring itself free of the virus and infection rates are falling in Sierra Leone. But it is not over yet, for in Guinea Ebola still kills dozens of people a week.
Moreover, the aftermath will harm the three countries’ economies, costing at least $1.6 billion in forgone economic growth this year, according to the World Bank.
Though it could have been a lot worse (at the height of the crisis some epidemiologists were talking of hundreds of thousands of deaths) it might also have been a lot better.
Previous Ebola outbreaks killed dozens or hundreds. The whole episode therefore suggests that the world’s defences against epidemics, though they have been strengthened since the rapid spread of SARS in 2002 and 2003 demonstrated their weaknesses, could do with reinforcing still further.
The prime directive of epidemic prevention is early detection. That means good surveillance. Unfortunately, only 64 of the 194 members of the World Health Organisation (WHO) have surveillance procedures, laboratories and data-management capabilities good enough to fulfil their obligations under an agreement known as the International Health Regulations. This, though, is changing. In Africa, Ethiopia, Rwanda and Uganda have sharpened up. So has Vietnam. America is now helping 30 other countries, including the three affected by Ebola, to follow suit while, at the same time, improving their networks of clinics. Groups of neighbours are also coming together to form regional surveillance networks that can follow outbreaks across borders. Researchers in Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam, for example, have formed what they call the Asian Partnership on Emerging Infectious Diseases Research.
Along with early detection, the world needs to get better at responding—both institutionally and technologically. The WHO, notoriously slow off the mark when it came to Ebola, is widely regarded as too ponderous and bureaucratic to react with the speed needed to nip an emerging epidemic in the bud. There is talk of setting up a specialist international epidemic-prevention organisation. Bill Gates, a philanthropist whose foundation does a lot of work on disease control in poor countries, encourages this idea in this week’s New England Journal of Medicine. He notes that epidemics and war are similarly costly of blood and treasure, but that only war is taken seriously by politicians—at least in terms of preparations such as standing armies. As if to prove the point, the threat of bioterrorism has been one motive for what preparations have been put in place.
An army, of course, needs weapons. And, in the case of epidemics, it is important to think about what those might be. The temptation is to put money into high-profile areas like vaccines and drugs. It may, though, be more useful to concentrate on diagnosis, because this can stop people spreading a disease. The science of diagnostic testing is advancing rapidly, making it easier to come up quickly with a test for a new pathogen. That, Mr Gates believes, presents an opportunity. But it is one, he says, which requires the establishment of a rapid approval and procurement process, so that diagnostic tests can be made available quickly during outbreaks. They also need to be portable, like pregnancy tests, to keep people out of clinics where they might otherwise spread infection.
Drugs and vaccines are still important, of course. Research is going on into ways to make new vaccines quickly, so trials can start within days of an outbreak. Modern biological techniques mean a pathogen’s genome can be copied and stuck into other cells to turn out proteins which might be used as a vaccine’s active ingredients. Once a vaccine has been identified, the same techniques could be used to make it quickly, and possibly locally if a portable factory were shipped to an affected area.
The sinews of war
But none of this rapid response can happen without cash. One lesson of an earlier incident, the H1N1 influenza (“swine flu”) pandemic of 2009, was the lack of a contingency fund to deal with such things. This is a problem Jim Yong Kim, president of the World Bank, is determined to solve. He has been meeting with politicians and the private sector to advance the case for a “global pandemic emergency financing facility”.
One more modest possibility is that pools of research funding could be set up in advance, along with agreed research protocols, allowing health studies to start more quickly. An existing example of this is a fund created by the Wellcome Trust, a British medical charity.
Even on the coldest of calculations, a contingency fund would be a wise precaution. The damage caused by Ebola to west Africa’s economy is trivial compared with the cost of, say, a global influenza pandemic. The World Bank reckons that might reduce global economic activity by almost 5%. How many would die would depend on the virus’s virulence. But even a 1% death rate, for something that was truly worldwide, would add up to millions. That is too much blood, and too much treasure, for politicians to ignore.
From the print edition: Science and technology
According to the text:
Item 4 - Areas like vaccines and drugs attract more investment.
Provas
Questão presente nas seguintes provas
Sobre as mudanças estruturais ocorridas na economia brasileira nos anos 1990, é correto afirmar que:
Item 2 - Apesar de muitas mudanças ocorridas na década de 1990, uma característica que não se alterou foi a participação majoritária do estoque de capital estrangeiro em empresas industriais frente à participação em outros setores, como serviços e agricultura, bem ilustrado pelo aumento do número de montadoras automotivas que se instalaram no país à época.
Provas
Questão presente nas seguintes provas
Classifique a seguinte afirmações como verdadeira ou falsa:
Item 1 - Se !$ \{a_n\}_{n \, \ge \, 1} !$ é uma sequência de números positivos tal que !$ \textstyle \sum_{n-1}^{+\infty} \, a_n !$ converge, então !$ \textstyle \sum_{n-1}^{+\infty} \, a_n^2 !$ também converge;
Provas
Questão presente nas seguintes provas
Cadernos
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