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Technology has created more jobs than it has destroyed

The battle between men and machines goes back centuries. Are they taking our jobs? Or are they easing our workload? A study by economists at the consultancy Deloitte seeks to shed new light on the relationship between jobs and the rise of technology by searching through census data for England and Wales going back to 1871.

Their conclusion is that, rather than destroying jobs, technology has been a “great job-creating machine”. Findings by Deloitte such as rise in bar staff since the 1950s or a surge in the number of hairdressers this century suggest to the authors that technology has increased spending power, therefore creating new demand and new jobs. Their study argues that the debate has been twisted towards the job-destroying effects of technological change, which are more easily observed than its creative aspects.

Going back over past figures paints a more balanced picture, say authors Ian Stewart and Alex Cole. “The dominant trend is of contracting employment in agriculture and manufacturing being more than balanced by rapid growth in the caring, creative, technology and business services sectors,” they write. “Machines will take on more repetitive and laborious tasks, but they seem no closer to eliminating the need for human labor than at any time in the last 150 years.”

According to the study, hard, dangerous and dull jobs have declined. In some sectors, technology has quite clearly cost jobs, but they question whether they are really jobs we would want to hold on to. Technology directly substitutes human muscle power and, in so doing, raises productivity and shrinks employment. “In the UK the first sector to feel this effect on any scale was agriculture,” says the study.

The study also found out that ‘caring’ jobs have increased. The report cites a “profound shift”, with labor switching from its historic role, as a source of raw power, to the care, education and provision of services to others.

Technological progress has cut the prices of essentials, such as food, and the price of bigger household items such as TVs and kitchen appliances, notes Stewart. That leaves more money to spend on leisure, and creates new demand and new jobs, which may explain the big rise in bar staff, he adds. “Despite the decline in the traditional pub, census data shows that the number of people employed in bars rose fourfold between 1951 and 2011,” the report says.

The Deloitte economists believe that rising incomes have allowed consumers to spend more on personal services, such as grooming. That in turn has driven employment of hairdressers. So, while in 1871 there was one hairdresser or barber for every 1,793 citizens of England and Wales; today there is one for every 287 people.

(Adapted from: https://goo.gl/7V5vuw. Access: 02/02/2018.)

The use of the modal verb may in “which may explain the big rise in bar staff” (paragraph 6) indicates that