São correta a afirmativa:

Item 3 - A média do processo MA(1), !$ y_t \, = \, e_t \, + \, + \, \theta e_{t-1}, !$ em que !$ e_t !$ é um ruído branco, é igual a zero.

TEXT

THE THIRD DEGREE

(Edward Chancellor. The devil take the hindmost: a history of

financial speculation. New York: Plume Books, 1999: 345-349.)

John Maynard Keynes’s personal and successful experience of speculation led him to the conclusion that markets were fundamentally inefficient. In his General Theory, Keynes defined speculation as the attempt to forecast changes in the psychology of the market. He likened speculation to a newspaper competition in which the competitors have to pick out six prettiest faces from hundreds of photographs,

“so that each has to pick, not those faces which he himself finds prettiest, but those which he thinks likeliest to catch the fancy of the other competitors, all of whom are looking at the problem from the same point of view... We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be.”

According to the text, Keynes

Item 3 - used a metaphor to explain what speculation is all about;

Um pesquisador estima o seguinte modelo de regressão simples: !$ Y_i \, = \, \beta_0 \, + \, \beta_1 X_i \, + \, e_i. !$ Outro pesquisador estima o mesmo modelo, mas com escalas diferentes para !$ Y_i \,\, e \,\, X_i. !$ O segundo modelo é: !$ Y^*_i \, = \, \beta^*_0 \, + \, \beta^*_1 X^*_i \, + \, e^*_i, !$ em que: !$ Y^*_i \, = \, w_1 Y_i, \, X^*_i \, = \, w_2 X_i !$ e !$ w_1 !$ e !$ w_2 !$ são constantes maiores que zero.

Item 3 - Os coeficientes de determinação são iguais nos dois modelos.

When the tide turns against the speculator there is an inevitable loss of liberty. In The Road to Serfdom (first published in 1949), the Austrian economist Friedrich von Hayek declared that state control of foreign exchange dealing was a “decisive advance on the path to totalitarianism and the suppression of the individual liberty.” Hayek believed that from a mixed economy there would be an inevitable progression to socialism. History has proved Hayek wrong. His analysis underestimated the power of speculation, even in quasi-socialist economies, to pull in the opposite direction. Speculation undermined the Bretton Woods system of fixed currencies and, more recently, it has destroyed the state-managed capitalism of Japan and other Asian nations. As an anarchic force, speculation demands continuing government restrictions, but inevitably it will break any chains and run amok. The pendulum swings back and forth between economic liberty and constraint.

According to Hayek,

Item 0 - any move to curb speculation implies loss of individual freedom;

Com relação ao período 1961-1964, é correto afirmar que:

Item 2 - Durante o período parlamentarista de governo, o baixo crescimento econômico pode ser explicado pela política econômica restritiva, responsável pela queda da inflação verificada no período.

Com respeito a mercados caracterizados por informação assimétrica, avalie a afirmativa:

Item 0 - Uma companhia seguradora deve se preocupar com a possibilidade de um comprador de uma apólice de seguro de vida ser portador de doença grave. Este é um exemplo de risco moral.