TEXT I

Breaking the habit: From oiloholics to e-totallers

What changes in driving habits and improved batteries might do to oil demand

It has been a bad couple of years for those hoping for the death of driving. In America, where cars are an important part of the national psyche, a decade ago people had suddenly started to drive less, which had not happened since the oil shocks of the 1970s. Academics started to talk excitedly about “peak driving”, offering explanations such as urbanisation, ageing baby-boomers, car-shy millennials, ride-sharing apps such as Uber and even the distraction of Facebook.

Yet the causes may have been more prosaic: a combination of higher petrol prices and lower incomes in the wake of the 2008-09 financial crisis. Since the drop in oil prices in 2014, and a recovery in employment, the number of vehicle-miles travelled has rebounded, and sales of trucks and SUVs, which are less fuel-efficient than cars, have hit record highs.

This sensitivity to prices and incomes is important for global oil demand. More than half the world’s oil is used for transport, and of that, 46% goes into passenger cars. But the response to lower prices has been partially offset by dramatic improvements in fuel efficiency in America and elsewhere, thanks to standards like America’s Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE.), the EU’s rules on CO₂ emissions and those in place in China since 2012.

The IEA says that such measures cut oil consumption in 2015 by a whopping 2.3m b/d. This is particularly impressive because interest in fuel efficiency usually wanes when prices are low. If best practice were applied to all the world’s vehicles, the savings would be 4.3m b/d, roughly equivalent to the crude output of Canada. This helps explain why some forecasters think demand for petrol may peak within the next 10-15 years even if the world’s vehicle fleet keeps growing.

Occo Roelofsen of McKinsey, a consultancy, goes further. Hereckons that thanks to the decline in the use of oil in light vehicles, total consumption of liquid fuels will begin to fall within a decade, and that in the next few decades driving will be shaken up by electric vehicles (EVs), self-driving cars and car-sharing. […]

(Dated Nov 24th, 2016. From https://www.economist.com/news/

specialreport/ 21710635-what-changes-driving-habits-and-improved-batteries-might-dooil- demand-coming. Accessed July 18th, 2017)

The word “offset” in “has been partially offset” means:

TEXT I

Breaking the habit: From oiloholics to e-totallers

What changes in driving habits and improved batteries might do to oil demand

It has been a bad couple of years for those hoping for the death of driving. In America, where cars are an important part of the national psyche, a decade ago people had suddenly started to drive less, which had not happened since the oil shocks of the 1970s. Academics started to talk excitedly about “peak driving”, offering explanations such as urbanisation, ageing baby-boomers, car-shy millennials, ride-sharing apps such as Uber and even the distraction of Facebook.

Yet the causes may have been more prosaic: a combination of higher petrol prices and lower incomes in the wake of the 2008-09 financial crisis. Since the drop in oil prices in 2014, and a recovery in employment, the number of vehicle-miles travelled has rebounded, and sales of trucks and SUVs, which are less fuel-efficient than cars, have hit record highs.

This sensitivity to prices and incomes is important for global oil demand. More than half the world’s oil is used for transport, and of that, 46% goes into passenger cars. But the response to lower prices has been partially offset by dramatic improvements in fuel efficiency in America and elsewhere, thanks to standards like America’s Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE.), the EU’s rules on CO₂ emissions and those in place in China since 2012.

The IEA says that such measures cut oil consumption in 2015 by a whopping 2.3m b/d. This is particularly impressive because interest in fuel efficiency usually wanes when prices are low. If best practice were applied to all the world’s vehicles, the savings would be 4.3m b/d, roughly equivalent to the crude output of Canada. This helps explain why some forecasters think demand for petrol may peak within the next 10-15 years even if the world’s vehicle fleet keeps growing.

Occo Roelofsen of McKinsey, a consultancy, goes further. Hereckons that thanks to the decline in the use of oil in light vehicles, total consumption of liquid fuels will begin to fall within a decade, and that in the next few decades driving will be shaken up by electric vehicles (EVs), self-driving cars and car-sharing. […]

(Dated Nov 24th, 2016. From https://www.economist.com/news/

specialreport/ 21710635-what-changes-driving-habits-and-improved-batteries-might-dooil- demand-coming. Accessed July 18th, 2017)

The use of “yet” in the opening of the second paragraph indicates that the author will provide a(n):

TEXT I

Breaking the habit: From oiloholics to e-totallers

What changes in driving habits and improved batteries might do to oil demand

It has been a bad couple of years for those hoping for the death of driving. In America, where cars are an important part of the national psyche, a decade ago people had suddenly started to drive less, which had not happened since the oil shocks of the 1970s. Academics started to talk excitedly about “peak driving”, offering explanations such as urbanisation, ageing baby-boomers, car-shy millennials, ride-sharing apps such as Uber and even the distraction of Facebook.

Yet the causes may have been more prosaic: a combination of higher petrol prices and lower incomes in the wake of the 2008-09 financial crisis. Since the drop in oil prices in 2014, and a recovery in employment, the number of vehicle-miles travelled has rebounded, and sales of trucks and SUVs, which are less fuel-efficient than cars, have hit record highs.

This sensitivity to prices and incomes is important for global oil demand. More than half the world’s oil is used for transport, and of that, 46% goes into passenger cars. But the response to lower prices has been partially offset by dramatic improvements in fuel efficiency in America and elsewhere, thanks to standards like America’s Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE.), the EU’s rules on CO₂ emissions and those in place in China since 2012.

The IEA says that such measures cut oil consumption in 2015 by a whopping 2.3m b/d. This is particularly impressive because interest in fuel efficiency usually wanes when prices are low. If best practice were applied to all the world’s vehicles, the savings would be 4.3m b/d, roughly equivalent to the crude output of Canada. This helps explain why some forecasters think demand for petrol may peak within the next 10-15 years even if the world’s vehicle fleet keeps growing.

Occo Roelofsen of McKinsey, a consultancy, goes further. Hereckons that thanks to the decline in the use of oil in light vehicles, total consumption of liquid fuels will begin to fall within a decade, and that in the next few decades driving will be shaken up by electric vehicles (EVs), self-driving cars and car-sharing. […]

(Dated Nov 24th, 2016. From https://www.economist.com/news/

specialreport/ 21710635-what-changes-driving-habits-and-improved-batteries-might-dooil- demand-coming. Accessed July 18th, 2017)

In the first paragraph, one of the reasons provided for the fact that driving was reduced in America a decade ago is:

TEXT I

Breaking the habit: From oiloholics to e-totallers

What changes in driving habits and improved batteries might do to oil demand

It has been a bad couple of years for those hoping for the death of driving. In America, where cars are an important part of the national psyche, a decade ago people had suddenly started to drive less, which had not happened since the oil shocks of the 1970s. Academics started to talk excitedly about “peak driving”, offering explanations such as urbanisation, ageing baby-boomers, car-shy millennials, ride-sharing apps such as Uber and even the distraction of Facebook.

Yet the causes may have been more prosaic: a combination of higher petrol prices and lower incomes in the wake of the 2008-09 financial crisis. Since the drop in oil prices in 2014, and a recovery in employment, the number of vehicle-miles travelled has rebounded, and sales of trucks and SUVs, which are less fuel-efficient than cars, have hit record highs.

This sensitivity to prices and incomes is important for global oil demand. More than half the world’s oil is used for transport, and of that, 46% goes into passenger cars. But the response to lower prices has been partially offset by dramatic improvements in fuel efficiency in America and elsewhere, thanks to standards like America’s Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE.), the EU’s rules on CO₂ emissions and those in place in China since 2012.

The IEA says that such measures cut oil consumption in 2015 by a whopping 2.3m b/d. This is particularly impressive because interest in fuel efficiency usually wanes when prices are low. If best practice were applied to all the world’s vehicles, the savings would be 4.3m b/d, roughly equivalent to the crude output of Canada. This helps explain why some forecasters think demand for petrol may peak within the next 10-15 years even if the world’s vehicle fleet keeps growing.

Occo Roelofsen of McKinsey, a consultancy, goes further. Hereckons that thanks to the decline in the use of oil in light vehicles, total consumption of liquid fuels will begin to fall within a decade, and that in the next few decades driving will be shaken up by electric vehicles (EVs), self-driving cars and car-sharing. […]

(Dated Nov 24th, 2016. From https://www.economist.com/news/

specialreport/ 21710635-what-changes-driving-habits-and-improved-batteries-might-dooil- demand-coming. Accessed July 18th, 2017)

The title of Text I implies a(n):

A avaliação das quantidades recuperáveis de petróleo (reservas e recursos) pode ser realizada de forma determinística usando procedimentos analíticos diretos e indiretos, envolvendo o uso dos métodos baseados em dados volumétricos (estáticos) e baseados em dados de desempenho (dinâmicos). A seleção do método apropriado para estimar reservas e recursos, e a precisão das estimativas, dependem em grande parte dos seguintes fatores, EXCETO:

Abordagens matemáticas para lidar com incertezas nas estimativas de recursos de hidrocarbonetos podem ser vistas como um processo totalmente probabilístico.

No Método Probabilístico, a incerteza estatística dos parâmetros de um reservatório individual é usada para calcular a incerteza estatística dos volumes de recursos no local (in-place) e aqueles que sejam recuperáveis. Muitas vezes, um método estocástico (por exemplo, Monte Carlo) é aplicado para gerar funções de probabilidade por meio de amostragem aleatória de distribuições de entrada. Tais funções se prestam facilmente a vários métodos quantitativos de análise de risco e de tomada de decisão. Os níveis de probabilidade de ocorrência de um volume recuperável total podem ser relacionados às categorias de reserva 1P, 2P e 3P, ou às categorias de recursos correspondentes. Em muitos casos, não existe uma relação um-para-um entre um desses resultados e o volume ou área física no reservatório. Dessa forma, o valor do método probabilístico pode ser descrito pelas seguintes características, EXCETO:

Incertezas geológicas que afetam cálculos de reservas, retornos financeiros e custos, envolvem procedimentos para estimar as reservas (o principal componente da receita) e os custos (tanto de sucesso quanto de insucesso). Quando se avalia as incertezas relacionadas à carga de hidrocarbonetos em um determinado reservatório, calcula-se um fator de chance geológico que envolve todos os fatores descritos a seguir, EXCETO:

Recurso petrolífero contingente é definido como:

Em análises de prospectos exploratórios, o volume de hidrocarbonetos estimado em um reservatório é denominado volume in-place (óleo e/ou gás) e o volume de hidrocarbonetos que possa ser comercialmente recuperado é chamado de “reservas”. As reservas são classificadas, basicamente, por quatro critérios: reservas descobertas, recuperáveis, comerciais e remanescentes, sempre com base no método aplicado para seu desenvolvimento. As reservas podem ser calculadas, resumidamente, pela seguinte equação:

O mecanismo de produção de um reservatório (drive mechanism) fornece a energia que move o hidrocarboneto ao longo do reservatório na direção de um poço produtor. São mecanismos de produção de energia de um reservatório, EXCETO: