El dólar tiene un nuevo escenario

El reciente comunicado del grupo de los siete países más industrializados (G-7), señala el inicio de un nuevo escenario para el dólar y las principales divisas mundiales. El G-7 aboga por una mayor flexibilidad en los mercados cambiarios para lograr un ajuste suave y generalizado de los desequilibrios estadounidenses. De ahí, que el mercado haya interpretado el fin oficial de la política del dólar fuerte, lo que conlleva riesgos y oportunidades en similar proporción y augura una nueva fase de volatilidad cambiaria que se trasladará al resto de los mercados financieros.

Las monedas asiáticas registraron ayer una fuerte apreciación frente a la divisa estadounidense, toda vez que las autoridades monetarias permitieron la libre cotización de sus monedas, o al menos redujeron el volumen de sus intervenciones. Lo anterior puede tener consecuencias para el mercado de deuda estadounidense, así como amenazar la propia recuperación de estos países. En Europa, una renovada fortaleza del euro puede dar al traste con las débiles señales de recuperación, lo que obliga a las autoridades a actuar y a tomar medidas fiscales y monetarias adicionales.

(Cinco días, 23.09.03)

El dólar tiene un nuevo escenario

El reciente comunicado del grupo de los siete países más industrializados (G-7), señala el inicio de un nuevo escenario para el dólar y las principales divisas mundiales. El G-7 aboga por una mayor flexibilidad en los mercados cambiarios para lograr un ajuste suave y generalizado de los desequilibrios estadounidenses. De ahí, que el mercado haya interpretado el fin oficial de la política del dólar fuerte, lo que conlleva riesgos y oportunidades en similar proporción y augura una nueva fase de volatilidad cambiaria que se trasladará al resto de los mercados financieros.

Las monedas asiáticas registraron ayer una fuerte apreciación frente a la divisa estadounidense, toda vez que las autoridades monetarias permitieron la libre cotización de sus monedas, o al menos redujeron el volumen de sus intervenciones. Lo anterior puede tener consecuencias para el mercado de deuda estadounidense, así como amenazar la propia recuperación de estos países. En Europa, una renovada fortaleza del euro puede dar al traste con las débiles señales de recuperación, lo que obliga a las autoridades a actuar y a tomar medidas fiscales y monetarias adicionales.

(Cinco días, 23.09.03)

REGRETTABLE though it may be, the wages of sin can be well worth having. Vice Fund, a mutual fund started 14 months ago by Mutuals.com, a Dallas investment company, is profiting nicely from what some would consider the wickedest corners of the legitimate economy: alcohol, arms, gambling and tobacco. So far this year, Vice Fund has returned 17.2% to investors, beating both the S&P 500 (15.2%) and the Dow Jones industrial average (13.2%) by a few points.

In fact, all four vice-ridden sectors have outperformed the overall American market during the past five years. "No matter what the economy's state or how interest rates move, people keep drinking, smoking and gambling," says Dan Ahrens, a portfolio manager at the self-described "socially irresponsible" fund. With President George Bush pursuing a muscular foreign policy, the outlook for defence spending is also bright.

REGRETTABLE though it may be, the wages of sin can be well worth having. Vice Fund, a mutual fund started 14 months ago by Mutuals.com, a Dallas investment company, is profiting nicely from what some would consider the wickedest corners of the legitimate economy: alcohol, arms, gambling and tobacco. So far this year, Vice Fund has returned 17.2% to investors, beating both the S&P 500 (15.2%) and the Dow Jones industrial average (13.2%) by a few points.

In fact, all four vice-ridden sectors have outperformed the overall American market during the past five years. "No matter what the economy's state or how interest rates move, people keep drinking, smoking and gambling," says Dan Ahrens, a portfolio manager at the self-described "socially irresponsible" fund. With President George Bush pursuing a muscular foreign policy, the outlook for defence spending is also bright.

REGRETTABLE though it may be, the wages of sin can be well worth having. Vice Fund, a mutual fund started 14 months ago by Mutuals.com, a Dallas investment company, is profiting nicely from what some would consider the wickedest corners of the legitimate economy: alcohol, arms, gambling and tobacco. So far this year, Vice Fund has returned 17.2% to investors, beating both the S&P 500 (15.2%) and the Dow Jones industrial average (13.2%) by a few points.

In fact, all four vice-ridden sectors have outperformed the overall American market during the past five years. "No matter what the economy's state or how interest rates move, people keep drinking, smoking and gambling," says Dan Ahrens, a portfolio manager at the self-described "socially irresponsible" fund. With President George Bush pursuing a muscular foreign policy, the outlook for defence spending is also bright.

A new alliance of some of the world's poorest countries forged during the last week's global trade talks has changed the entire dynamics of world politics, the foreign minister of Brazil told The Independent yesterday.

In an exclusive interview, Celso Amorim said the formation of the Group of 21 nations (G21) had "reshuffled the cards" by creating a powerful counterweight to Washington and Brussels. The creation of the G21 has been one of the most significant developments of the World Trade Organisation meetings that have dominated the Mexican beach resort of Cancun since Wednesday.

Thanks to tough negotiating by the G21, analysts believe that the world's two most powerful economic blocs have been prevented from riding roughshod over the 100-plus countries that make up the developing world. It has also enhanced the reputation of Brazil - the leading voice in the G21 and the country with the largest democratic support for any left-wing government in the world - and the administration led by the uneducated steelworker Lula da Silva. "We have gained the political initiative," said Mr Amorim on the fringes of the conference.

(From: The Independent September 15^th 2003 - slightly adapted.)

A new alliance of some of the world's poorest countries forged during the last week's global trade talks has changed the entire dynamics of world politics, the foreign minister of Brazil told The Independent yesterday.

In an exclusive interview, Celso Amorim said the formation of the Group of 21 nations (G21) had "reshuffled the cards" by creating a powerful counterweight to Washington and Brussels. The creation of the G21 has been one of the most significant developments of the World Trade Organisation meetings that have dominated the Mexican beach resort of Cancun since Wednesday.

Thanks to tough negotiating by the G21, analysts believe that the world's two most powerful economic blocs have been prevented from riding roughshod over the 100-plus countries that make up the developing world. It has also enhanced the reputation of Brazil - the leading voice in the G21 and the country with the largest democratic support for any left-wing government in the world - and the administration led by the uneducated steelworker Lula da Silva. "We have gained the political initiative," said Mr Amorim on the fringes of the conference.

(From: The Independent September 15^th 2003 - slightly adapted.)

A new alliance of some of the world's poorest countries forged during the last week's global trade talks has changed the entire dynamics of world politics, the foreign minister of Brazil told The Independent yesterday.

In an exclusive interview, Celso Amorim said the formation of the Group of 21 nations (G21) had "reshuffled the cards" by creating a powerful counterweight to Washington and Brussels. The creation of the G21 has been one of the most significant developments of the World Trade Organisation meetings that have dominated the Mexican beach resort of Cancun since Wednesday.

Thanks to tough negotiating by the G21, analysts believe that the world's two most powerful economic blocs have been prevented from riding roughshod over the 100-plus countries that make up the developing world. It has also enhanced the reputation of Brazil - the leading voice in the G21 and the country with the largest democratic support for any left-wing government in the world - and the administration led by the uneducated steelworker Lula da Silva. "We have gained the political initiative," said Mr Amorim on the fringes of the conference.

(From: The Independent September 15^th 2003 - slightly adapted.)

Brazil: One Growth Obstacle after Another

After just eight months in office, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the left-wing Workers' Party has won congressional approval for economically critical and politically controversial pension and tax reforms. Now, however, da Silva faces a bigger challenge: reviving Brazil's economy.

In 2003's first half, Brazil's economy fell into recession. Most economists expect growth for the entire year to be a miserly 1%. And a governmentlinked research group recently embarrassed ministers by predicting growth of just 0.5% in 2003. Taxes are a serious obstacle to growth. Brazil's tax burden is among the highest in the world, equal to 41.7% of salaries. Reforms now proceeding through Congress will simplify the tax system, but won't reduce the total burden. That will be possible only if interest rates fall and the government can keep spending in check, thereby reducing the amount of money needed to pay its own debts. For now, Brazil's economy is going nowhere.

(By Jonathan Wheatley in São Paulo - adapted. From: Business Week September 10, 2003)

After just eight months in office, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the left-wing Workers' Party has won congressional approval for economically critical and politically controversial pension and tax reforms. Now, however, da Silva faces a bigger challenge: reviving Brazil's economy.

In 2003's first half, Brazil's economy fell into recession. Most economists expect growth for the entire year to be a miserly 1%. And a governmentlinked research group recently embarrassed ministers by predicting growth of just 0.5% in 2003. Taxes are a serious obstacle to growth. Brazil's tax burden is among the highest in the world, equal to 41.7% of salaries. Reforms now proceeding through Congress will simplify the tax system, but won't reduce the total burden. That will be possible only if interest rates fall and the government can keep spending in check, thereby reducing the amount of money needed to pay its own debts. For now, Brazil's economy is going nowhere.